APC Primary: Can Tinubu Convert 10.99 Million Primary Votes into Victory in 2027?
President’s overwhelming primary win raises expectations as analysts weigh regional shifts, voter turnout, and opposition challenges ahead of the general election
President Bola Tinubu’s dominant victory in the APC presidential primary has sparked debate over whether the ruling party can translate internal party support into success at the 2027 general election amid changing political dynamics and growing opposition alliances.
President Bola Tinubu recorded a landslide victory in the presidential primary of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), securing 10,999,162 votes against his only challenger, Stanley Osifo, who polled 16,503 votes.
The result has triggered discussions over whether the strong showing in the party’s internal exercise can be replicated during the 2027 general election.
The APC, which currently claims over 12.6 million registered members, presented the outcome as a sign of broad internal support for Tinubu’s leadership and his prospects for re-election.
Supporters of the president argued that if nearly 11 million party members participated in backing his candidacy, the numbers could translate into stronger national performance when millions of registered voters head to the polls in 2027.
However, comparisons with previous election figures have raised questions. In the 2023 presidential election, Tinubu secured 8,794,753 votes nationwide despite the APC previously claiming a much larger membership base.
APC National Chairman, Professor Nentawe Yilwatda, acknowledged that the party experienced challenges with its online registration process in 2023 but said those issues had since been resolved.
Describing the primary election as a “dress rehearsal” for 2027, Yilwatda expressed confidence that Tinubu would secure another victory at the next general election.
He also dismissed allegations of irregularities circulating online, maintaining that videos linked to the exercise were unrelated to APC activities.
Regional voting patterns from the primary showed notable changes compared to the 2023 election.
Tinubu recorded stronger figures in the South-East, South-South, and North-East compared to his previous election performance, suggesting expanded support in regions where he had earlier faced challenges.
In the South-East, support increased significantly, while the South-South also recorded higher numbers than in 2023.
By contrast, the South-West — traditionally regarded as Tinubu’s strongest political base — appeared to produce lower figures compared to the last presidential election.
Political observers note that translating party primary success into national victory may require stronger mobilisation efforts in key voter-heavy regions such as the North-West and South-West.
The ruling party is also expected to face strong competition from opposition figures and emerging political alliances ahead of the 2027 polls.
Potential challengers include former Anambra State governor Peter Obi, possible coalition arrangements involving northern political figures, and candidates expected to emerge from other political parties.
As political activities gradually intensify, attention is expected to shift from party primaries to how parties convert internal momentum into nationwide electoral support.
